If you want to come out on top against the bookies it is vital that you understand the fundamentals. When it comes to sports betting there is nothing quite as fundamental as the odds that the bookies offer. Unfortunately, betting odds can prove very confusing. That’s especially true for people who are new to betting.
That’s where this article comes in. We’re going to explain exactly how betting odds work, how they are set and the differences in the ways they are displayed. After taking in all the information below, you will be much better equipped to set about making some profit.
Odds Shark’s Moneyline Betting Guide will explain the wide variety of moneyline bets that can be made, why and how sportsbooks display the odds and how the moneyline differs from other betting options like point spreads or totals. Betting odds are compiled by bookmakers as a way to represent what they believe is the likelihood is of an event or events happening. These odds are usually represented as either a fraction (2/1).
What Do Betting Odds Represent?
At their most basic, betting odds tell you two things:
- How much you stand to make should the selection win
- The probability of the selection winning
Take this example. If you were looking through the weekend Premier League fixtures and saw a team had fractional odds of 2/1 (that’s decimal odds of 3.0) you would know that you stand to win £2 in profit from every £1 that you stake should the team win. You’d also know that the bookmaker who set the odds ranks the team’s chances of winning as one in every three times the game is played.
If you saw a team had fractional odds of 8/13, you’d know that for every £13 you stake, you will win £8 or profit and that if the game was played 21 times in total, the bookies think the team would win 13 times and fail to win eight times (what is known as the implied probability).
Working out an implied probability percentage from fractional odds is simple. You just divide the stake by the combined sum of the two numbers which make up the fractional odds. In the case of 2/1 the equation looks like this:
1 / (2+1) = 0.33 or 33%
For odds of 8/13 this is the equation:
13 / (8+13) = 0.62 or 62%
That’s how the maths works but when it comes to the actual odds that bookmakers set, it’s a little more complicated.
How Do Bookmakers Set Their Odds?
The basic business model of a sportsbook is fairly uncomplicated. Bookmakers set the odds and take bets on an event. When that event ends they pay out everyone who backed the winner and then keep the rest for themselves.
But, consider the following horse race.
| Selection | Fractional Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability | Profit From a £10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse 1 | Evens | 2.0 | 50% | £10 |
| Horse 2 | 3/1 | 4.0 | 25% | £30 |
| Horse 3 | 7/1 | 8.0 | 12.5% | £70 |
| Horse 4 | 7/1 | 8.0 | 12.5% | £70 |
As you can see, the combined implied probability of the selections above is 100%. From a bookmaker’s perspective that is a big problem. That’s because, presuming they’ve got the same amount of liability on each selection, they’d never make any money as they’d have to collect and payout the same amount.
So, the bookmakers will build something called an overround into their odds. Here’s a real example of a match odds market from a football match:
| Selection | Fractional Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability | Profit From a £10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd | 1/2 | 1.5 | 66.7% | £5 |
| Draw | 18/5 | 4.6 | 21.7% | £36 |
| West Ham | 13/2 | 7.5 | 13.3% | £65 |
With an total implied probability of 101.7%, the bookmaker who set those odds is guaranteed to make a profit of 1.7% assuming that they have the same amount of liability on all three selections. Of course, it rarely works out that the bookies manage to spread their liability evenly but you need to know that when you look at a betting market you’re not simply looking at a reflection of how the bookies think the event will pan out. There’s much more going on behind the scenes.
Armed with this knowledge of how the bookmakers set their odds, you can concentrate on finding value. That is, finding a bet where you believe the odds (and therefore the implied probability) is too big. If the bookies think that a side has a 50% chance of winning but you think they’ve got a better chance than that, that’s value.
The Difference Between Decimal and Fractional Odds
You will have seen above that we’ve spoken about both fractional and decimal odds. They are just different ways of conveying the same information but they do add another layer of complexity.
All the major online bookmakers will shows their odds as both fractions and decimals so it’s important that you understand just what they are showing and how to switch between the two. Thankfully, it only requires simple maths.
To go from a fraction to a decimal is as easy as dividing out the fraction and adding one. Here’s how that looks for odds of 2/1:
(2/1) + 1 = 3.o
And using our second example from above, 8/13, it looks like this:
(8/13) + 1 = 1.62
If you want to go from decimal odds to fractional odds is similarly simple. You just minus one from the decimal odds, turn that number into a fraction and reduce it down to it’s simplest form.
Let’s take decimal odds of 4.5, this is the equation:
4.5 – 1 = 3.5
35/10 -> 7/2
If the decimal price is 1.25, you convert it into fractional odds like this:
1.25 – 1 = 0.25
25/100 -> 1/4
Here’s a list of some of the most common fractional odds and their decimal equivalents (for a more in-depth list click here).
| Fractional Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1/10 | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| 1/5 | 1.2 | 83.33% |
| 2/5 | 1.4 | 71.43% |
| 1/2 | 1.5 | 66.67% |
| 1/1 (evens) | 2.0 | 50% |
| 3/2 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 2/1 | 3.0 | 33.33% |
| 4/1 | 5.0 | 20% |
| 9/1 | 10.0 | 10% |
| 100/1 | 101.0 | 0.99% |
Key Terminology
When reading betting advice or searching for a value bet on the bookies’ websites you’ll come across some key terms relating to betting odds. To round up our article on betting odds, we’ve covered the most widely used terms to ensure you don’t get confused in your search for winners.
Stake – The amount of money that you place (or wager) on a specific bet.
Price – The price of a bet is simply another way of referring to the odds. You can either say that a football team can be backed at odds of 2/1or that their price is 2/1.
Odds On & Odds Against – Two of the key terms that you’ll hear when it comes to betting odds are ‘odds on’ and ‘odds against’. These terms refer to whether a price is greater or lower than evens. Any price above evens is known as odds against, while anything below evens is odds on.
Short and Long Odds – If something is described as being short odds it means the price is low. A long odds shot will provide you with a bigger win but is much less likely to win.
Sports Betting Odds and Lines Explained
by Doc's Sports - 2/28/2012
Are you new to the online gaming world? There’s a big event that might draw your betting interest nearly every month of the year. Perhaps you are looking to put down some action on the Super Bowl, the World Series, the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Finals. Perhaps one of the Grand Slam events for golf or tennis. Or any of numerous horse races. Or the Olympics! Maybe you just want to be well-versed in sports betting 101 to understand what your significant other, friends or family are talking about while watching sports. Here is everything you need to know with sports betting odds and lines explained.
The simplest and most common type of gambling is on the point spread – that’s the amount one team is favored to beat the other club. Now, one thing to be aware of is that oddsmakers aren’t necessarily predicting the outcome of an event but are putting up a line that will draw the most action from bettors, preferably on both sides.
A point spread is used in the NFL and college football, the NBA and college basketball among the major American sports. If you see a line at a site that has the Chicago Bears -7.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers that means the Bears are favored to win by 7.5 points over the underdog Steelers.
Of course, there is no such thing as a half point in football or basketball. However, the sportsbooks use half points at times to ensure there is no ‘push’ – which means a tie and neither the sportsbook nor the bettor wins (all money is returned). So if you were to bet on that Bears-Steelers example, Pittsburgh essentially starts the game with a 7.5-point lead. If you wanted to win money on the Bears, Chicago would have to win by no less than eight points. If you wanted to win money on Pittsburgh, the Steelers would simply have to not lose by more than 7.5 points. So a 21-14 final score in favor of Chicago would be a win for Steelers bettors but not for Bears bettors. Any Pittsburgh victory obviously would be a win for anyone who bet the Steelers. There is also a point spread called a ‘pick’em’ – which means there is no favorite or underdog. All you have to do is pick the winner regardless of score.
There is also what is called a total. This is posted for every major American team sport. In football and basketball, the total is the combined amount of points the teams score in a game. You would either bet ‘under’ or ‘over’ that total. If the combined final score lands right on the number, then it’s a tie and all money is returned. In baseball, the total is usually between 6-10 runs scored combined by both teams in a game. In hockey, the total is usually between 5-6 total goals scored combined between two teams.
Often the over and under are both the same in terms of one or the other being a favorite. But there are times when either the over or under is favored over the other. This is when a moneyline comes into play. A moneyline is based on units of $100. It can also be used as a different way to bet on a winner or loser. In that Bears-Steelers example, Chicago could be listed at -150 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh at +200. That means you would have to bet $150 to win $100 on Chicago. But for that same $100, you would win $200 on the Steelers (in both cases minus what the book’s fee, or vigorish, is for accepting the bet).
Football and basketball often have both pointspreads and moneylines. You have the choice of betting either one or both. Betting on the moneylines to determine a winner are used prominently in hockey and baseball because usually these are low-scoring games where the winning team only wins by a run or goal – thus you won’t see pointspreads in those sports. But there are options in hockey and baseball to use either the puck line or run line. The Detroit Red Wings might be -1.5 goals against the Montreal Canadiens on the puck line – so Montreal starts the game from a betting perspective with a 1.5-goal lead. In baseball’s run line, the option is usually 1.5 runs to separate the teams.
Finally, fractional odds also are used in some American sports. Golf and horse racing are two prime examples. These odds are the net total that will be paid out to the bettor, should they win, relative to what they bet. It’s again best to think in terms of $100 units. So if a horse is the 3/1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, for example, or a golfer 3/1 to win the Masters, from a moneyline conversion perspective that would be +300. Thus, you would win $300 for every $100 wagered on the horse/golfer. If the horse/golfer is the 1/2 favorite, that means it’s -200 on the moneyline. Thus, you would have to bet $200 to win $100.
Explain Betting Odds Football
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